Engaging North Korea: Prospects And Challenges Of Another Trump-Kim Meeting – Analysis
The potential for President-elect Donald Trump to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presents a unique opportunity to tackle two critical global issues: North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and its expanding military alliance with Russia, which has significant implications for both the Ukraine conflict and stability in Northeast Asia.
This essay examines the challenges and prospects of such a meeting, juxtaposing Trump’s direct engagement approach with President Biden’s multilateral strategy. It also considers the roles of South Korea, China, Japan, and Russia in shaping outcomes, arguing that Trump’s use of “carrot and stick” diplomacy must be carefully balanced to achieve meaningful progress. Success hinges on harmonizing incentives with firm deterrence while addressing North Korea’s destabilizing actions, particularly its military support for Russia. The results of this engagement could reshape U.S.-North Korean relations and influence broader regional security dynamics in 2024 and beyond.
Background: U.S.- North Korea Relations and Current Challenges
Historical Context
The U.S. relationship with North Korea has fluctuated between periods of heightened tension and cautious diplomacy. Trump’s historic summits with Kim Jong-un in 2018 and 2019 aimed to establish trust and negotiate denuclearization. However, the absence of substantive agreements and North Korea’s continued weapons development highlighted the limitations of these discussions.
North Korea’s Strategic Shift
North Korea has increasingly aligned itself with Russia, supplying military aid—such as ammunition and troops—to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. This partnership enhances Pyongyang’s access to resources and advanced technology, undermining international sanctions. North Korea’s military activities, including missile launches and advancements in satellite technology, further threaten regional stability.
The Significance of Trump Engagement
Trump’s diplomacy offers a chance to reframe negotiations. His readiness to directly engage with adversaries distinguishes him from Biden’s focus on building multilateral alliances and applying pressure. However, critics warn that Trump’s approach risks legitimizing Kim’s regime without securing meaningful concessions.
The Problem: Risks and Barriers to Progress
North Korea’s Role in Global Conflicts
North Korea’s military partnership with Russia complicates diplomatic efforts. By providing ammunition and personnel, Pyongyang not only supports Russia’s campaign in Ukraine but also strengthens its military-industrial complex. This dual advantage empowers North Korea to resist international pressure while advancing its nuclear ambitions.
The Deadlock on Denuclearization
Achieving denuclearization remains a significant challenge. North Korea views its nuclear program as essential to the survival of its regime and as a means to counter perceived U.S. aggression. Previous negotiations have stalled due to Pyongyang’s refusal to dismantle its substantial arsenal without first obtaining sanctions relief.
Regional Concerns and Mistrust
U.S. allies in the region, particularly South Korea and Japan, worry that unilateral U.S.-North Korea discussions may overlook their security priorities. Both nations emphasize the necessity of a coordinated approach that bolsters deterrence and maintains regional stability.
Opportunities: The Potential of a Trump-Kim Meeting
Reopening Dialogue
A meeting between Trump and Kim could revitalize stalled negotiations, establishing a platform for discussions on denuclearization and regional security. Trump’s strategy of direct engagement may ease tensions and create opportunities for gradual progress.
Economic Incentives
Trump’s “carrot and stick” approach could provide North Korea with tangible incentives, such as partial sanctions relief or economic aid, in exchange for verified steps towards disarmament. These measures may address Pyongyang’s urgent economic issues and promote goodwill.
Weakening the North Korea-Russia Alliance
By addressing North Korea’s military support for Russia, Trump could undermine this partnership, reducing Pyongyang’s reliance on Moscow and limiting its access to essential resources. Emphasizing the risks associated with continued isolation might spur North Korea to reassess its strategic alliances.
Stakeholder Perspectives
South Korea
South Korea advocates for a denuclearized Korean Peninsula and condemns North Korea’s provocations. Seoul highlights the importance of U.S. commitments to its defence and insists that any agreements with Pyongyang must preserve regional stability.
Japan
Japan’s primary concern is North Korea’s missile capabilities, which pose a direct threat to its security. Tokyo supports a firm stance on denuclearization and insists that any concessions be contingent upon concrete actions from Pyongyang.
China
China’s relationship with North Korea is complex, as it balances economic support with a desire to prevent regional instability. While Beijing opposes North Korea’s military provocations, it also views Pyongyang as a buffer against U.S. influence in Asia.
Russia
Russia benefits from its alliance with North Korea, gaining critical military support while providing Pyongyang with food and resources. Moscow’s role complicates efforts to isolate North Korea and underscores the interconnectedness of global conflicts.
Recommendations for Trump Strategy
Confront Military Ties with Russia
Trump should address North Korea’s arms transfers to Russia, highlighting the global repercussions of these actions. By offering targeted incentives, such as food or economic relief, he could potentially weaken the Pyongyang-Moscow partnership.
Clear Incentives and Penalties
A balanced approach that combines economic incentives with enforceable penalties for non-compliance is crucial. Clear benchmarks for progress, such as a freeze on missile tests should guide negotiations.
Reinforce Regional Alliances
Involving South Korea and Japan in the negotiation process will ensure regional support and strengthen collective security. Maintaining transparency and coordination with allies is essential for building trust and deterring North Korean aggression.
Engage Multilateral Stakeholders
Involving China and Russia in discussions could help reduce their support for North Korea and encourage compliance with international norms. Multilateral forums provide a platform to address the broader implications of North Korea’s actions.
Conclusion
Trump’s proposed meeting with Kim Jong-un presents a unique opportunity to tackle some of the most urgent security challenges for 2024. By utilizing his personal diplomacy style and adopting a balanced “carrot and stick” approach, Trump can work towards reducing tensions, promoting denuclearization, and undermining North Korea’s destabilizing alliance with Russia. Success will depend on careful coordination with regional allies, strategic engagement with China and Russia, and a commitment to actionable outcomes. The stakes of this engagement are significant, but with a clear strategy, it could represent a pivotal moment in U.S.-North Korea relations and overall regional security.
Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat. He received his master’s degree in political science and comparative politics from the City University of New York. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.
References
Snyder, Scott A. “What Would a Second Trump Administration Mean for North Korea?” Council on Foreign Relations, November 29, 2023.
Howell, Edward. “Any New Trump–Kim Summit Risks Another No Deal. The US Must Nurture Old Alliances to Contain North Korea.” Chatham House, November 21, 2024.
Revere, Evans J.R. “A New Trump-Kim Summit Would Be High Risk, Low Reward.” Brookings Institution, June 8, 2023.
