Against The Tide: Narendra Modi’s 2024 Ordeal – Analysis
By Dr. Jagmeet Bawa, Dr. Sandeep Singh and Dr. Jatinder Mann
As 2024 approaches its conclusion, the year leaves behind an indelible mark, particularly in the realm of global politics. Dubbed the “Year of Elections,” 2024 saw more than half of the world’s population casting votes in pivotal contests. From India to Venezuela and Senegal to the United States, the world witnessed democracy being put to the test as record numbers of voters participated in elections. Early in the year, Time magazine called it a “make-or-break year for democracy,” while others described it as “democracy’s biggest test.”
Over 60 countries held elections in 2024, including some of the world’s most influential nations. India, the world’s largest democracy, went to the polls alongside the United States, a global superpower, and Russia, often criticized for its authoritarian regime. Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab Spring, dealt a severe blow to democratic experiments, highlighting the ongoing challenges facing nascent democracies.
A prominent political analyst Thomas Carothers, observed several key trends this year. First, right-wing parties made notable gains globally, securing victories in major countries like France and the United States, as well as in smaller nations such as Austria, Belgium, Panama, and Portugal. Second, 2024 proved to be a challenging year for incumbents, with many losing power in countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, Botswana, Panama, and Sri Lanka. However, some leaders defied the odds and returned to office, including those in El Salvador, Finland, Indonesia, Ireland, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Palau, and Taiwan. In India, Japan, and South Africa, ruling parties retained power but suffered electoral setbacks.
A bright spot for democracy was Senegal, where a successful election thwarted the outgoing president’s unconstitutional bid to remain in power. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s reelection as U.S. President sparked significant controversy, yet his victory underscored the enduring mechanisms of democratic elections.
However, the year also revealed troubling patterns. The Guardian’s Jonathan Yerushalmy and Oliver Holmes highlighted that between 2020 and 2024, one-fifth of all election results faced formal challenges. Losing candidates publicly rejected outcomes in 20% of elections, and opposition parties boycotted 10% of contests. This persistent undermining of electoral legitimacy sowed doubts among voters about the reliability of voting systems and the broader democratic process.
The most significant blow to democracy occurred in Bangladesh, where a democratically elected government was overthrown with external support. The primary motive behind this upheaval centered on the Saint Martin’s Island dispute, which Sheikh Hasina refused to concede. The so-called “student protests” against job quota systems were later exposed as a façade. Mohammad Yunus, head of the interim government, admitted during an event hosted by the Obama Foundation in the U.S. that these protests were orchestrated to destabilize the government. Following this coup, Bangladesh has witnessed unprecedented violence against minority Hindus, with radical groups—some linked to the interim government—targeting vulnerable communities.
The year 2024, therefore, stands as a complex chapter in the history of global democracy. It was a year of electoral milestones and democratic resilience, but also one marred by setbacks, controversies, and challenges that underscore the fragility of democratic systems worldwide.
How Modi Survived the Storm in 2024
As noted earlier, 2024 was a challenging year for incumbent leaders worldwide, and among them, one of the most scrutinized was Narendra Modi, leader of the world’s largest democracy, India. With nearly two billion people casting their votes globally during the year, more than half participated in India’s general elections alone. Modi faced the most formidable challenge of his political career as opposition parties united under the banner of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDI Alliance), a coalition formed with the sole objective of unseating him.
The INDI Alliance, established in December 2023, brought together over two dozen parties. Yet, Modi’s challenges were not limited to domestic adversaries; external forces also sought to influence the outcome. Prominent among these external actors was billionaire George Soros, whose alleged involvement in India’s elections became a major controversy during the winter session of Parliament. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) presented documents purportedly linking Soros to the leader of the opposition and his family, igniting widespread debate.
In addition to the general elections, eight Indian states held legislative assembly elections in 2024, including Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand. The BJP emerged victorious in five of these states, notably securing Haryana and Maharashtra, which delivered a severe blow to the Congress-led INDI Alliance. These defeats fractured the coalition, with member parties blaming each other for their failures.
The general election was a litmus test for Narendra Modi. After ten years in power, he faced significant anti-incumbency sentiment and a united opposition armed with potent narratives. The opposition’s primary attack centered on the Indian Constitution, alleging that if Modi were re-elected, his government would amend provisions protecting reservation policies for Scheduled Castes and Other Backward Classes. This narrative resonated with some segments of society, narrowing BJP’s electoral margin.
Despite the opposition’s efforts, the BJP emerged as the single-largest party but fell short of a majority, ending a decade of single-party rule. Modi swiftly formed a coalition government with two of BJP’s prominent allies: N. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United).
For Modi and the BJP, the victory was critical for India’s right-wing movement and for the forces struggling for the India’s revival at global stage, but the battle was far from over. The opposition, emboldened by their partial success, openly declared their intention to obstruct the government at every turn. However, Modi, known for his decisive leadership over his 23 years in public office, refused to be deterred. He initiated bold reforms, including a review of the Waqf Board Act, signaling his intent to govern assertively.
The opposition’s aggressive posturing began to crumble as cracks within the coalition deepened. The BJP’s victories in Haryana and Maharashtra dealt significant blows to the INDI Alliance’s unity. Even their wins in Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand failed to provide much-needed momentum. After these victories, alliance partners marginalized Congress, denying it influential positions in state governments.
The discord became glaring during the November by-elections in Uttar Pradesh, where Congress’s ally, the Samajwadi Party, offered Congress only one out of nine seats. Feeling humiliated, Congress chose to abstain from the elections entirely.
Narendra Modi’s survival in 2024 was a testament to his resilience and strategic acumen. Despite facing a united opposition, external pressures, and ten years of anti-incumbency, Modi managed to secure another term, proving once again his ability to navigate and withstand political storms.
Modi Under Pressure: Navigating Internal and External Challenges
The pressures on Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2024 were not limited to domestic opposition; external forces were equally active in challenging India’s stability. Self-proclaimed defenders of democracy and proponents of the so-called “Regime Change Band” sought to encircle India with their activities. Following the destabilization of governments in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, the ousting of Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh dealt a significant blow to India’s strategic interests, both regionally and internationally. Sheikh Hasina had closely collaborated with India while adeptly balancing ties with China. Her removal has now put both India’s strategic foothold in Bangladesh and the safety of the Hindu minority there at considerable risk.
Yet, as the year drew to a close, India found a silver lining in Myanmar. The weakening grip of Myanmar’s junta presents new opportunities for India. This shift opens the door to revitalizing the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, neutralizing militant groups, and expanding India’s influence in the region. Domestically, the political climate was also rife with attempts to capitalize on international controversies. Ahead of every parliamentary session, opposition parties would latch onto developments abroad to criticize the government. This time, it revolved around the U.S. Department of Justice filing cases against Indian entrepreneur Gautam Adani’s company. However, instead of retreating under pressure, Modi and his team adopted an offensive stance, exposing what they described as deep-state efforts to destabilize India and undermine its economic progress.
India’s Global Recognition Through Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has achieved remarkable global recognition, having been honored with 19 highest civilian awards from various countries. Notably, in 2024 alone, Modi received seven of these prestigious awards, a record unmatched by any leader worldwide in a single year. The countries bestowing their highest civilian honors on Modi in 2024 included Bhutan (The Order of the Gyalpo), Russia (The Order of the Saint Andrew), Nigeria (The Order of the Niger), Dominica (Dominika Award of Honor), Guyana (Award of Excellence Guyana), Barbados (Order of Freedom of Barbados), and Kuwait (Order of Mubarak Al Kabeer).
Previously, Modi had been awarded by Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, the Philippines, the Maldives, the UAE, Bahrain, the USA, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Egypt, France, and Greece. This unprecedented number of awards is not only a personal achievement for Modi but also a testament to India’s growing influence on the global stage. It symbolizes international acknowledgment of India’s rising power and prestige. For Modi and his team, such recognition serves as a morale booster, especially amid relentless criticism from opposition parties. While detractors aim to undermine Modi, the global community continues to acknowledge his leadership and India’s ascent.
India’s Year of Civilizational Resurgence and Modi
The year 2024 will be remembered as a milestone in India’s civilizational journey, marked by the restoration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya—a project that lay dormant for five decades. The temple, built on the birthplace of Lord Ram, represents the revival of India’s spiritual heritage and cultural identity. On January 22, Prime Minister Modi presided over the consecration ceremony, with nearly half a million devotees gathering in Ayodhya the next day to celebrate. For many Indians, the temple’s completion symbolizes the resurgence of a Hindu golden age, harking back to a time before foreign invasions and colonial rule.
At the foundation stone ceremony in 2020, Modi described the Ram Mandir as “a modern signifier of our ancient culture, an example of patriotic fervor, and a testament to the willpower of our citizens.” To some, however, the temple’s construction also highlights the BJP’s consolidation of political support by emphasizing Hindu cultural identity. The Indian National Congress, India’s main opposition party, notably refrained from attending the temple inauguration.
Narendra Modi envisions India as a developed nation by 2047, and the revival of cultural and spiritual symbols is seen as an integral part of this journey. The Ram Mandir’s construction is not merely a religious achievement but a moment of national healing—a symbolic act of a civilization reclaiming its identity. The temple’s completion is aptly described as “when the soul of a nation long suppressed finds utterance.”
While the Supreme Court’s landmark judgment paved the way for the temple, there is no denying the pivotal role played by Modi and the BJP in realizing this vision. Since its formation in 1984, the BJP consistently championed the construction of a grand temple in Ayodhya, encapsulated in the slogan “Mandir Wahi Banayenge” (We will build the temple at the same site). Modi, deeply committed to this cause, was part of L.K. Advani’s Rath Yatra and actively worked for the temple’s construction long before his rise to prominence. Thus, the realization of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya stands as a significant accomplishment credited to Modi’s leadership and dedication.
Conclusion
Narendra Modi began the year with high ambitions, rallying behind the slogan ‘Ab ki baar 400 ke paar.’ However, the general election results mid-year dealt a significant blow to his momentum. The loss in Uttar Pradesh—a crucial state with the highest number of parliamentary seats—was particularly alarming for Modi and the BJP. Given that Uttar Pradesh’s overwhelming support had been instrumental in BJP’s rise to power, the defeat raised serious concerns about the party’s future prospects.
Despite this setback, Modi managed to recover by the year’s end. The BJP regained its footing in the bye-elections, securing victory in 7 out of 9 contested seats, which proved to be a major morale booster. This resurgence was evident during the winter session of Parliament, where Modi and his team operated with renewed vigor, effectively countering opposition leaders and reclaiming their political momentum.
The year 2024 posed challenges for many incumbent leaders, yet Narendra Modi demonstrated his ability to thrive against the odds. Matching Jawaharlal Nehru’s record of becoming Prime Minister for a third consecutive term, Modi also solidified his stature as a prominent international leader. He has become a key voice for Global South nations, earning recognition as one of the world’s most influential leaders. Under his leadership, Indian foreign policy has adeptly balanced relations with diverse countries, while the Indian economy has strengthened significantly during his tenure.
About the authors:
- Prof. Jagmeet Bawa, Central University of Himachal Pradesh, Dharmshala.
- Dr. Sandeep Singh, Central University of Punjab, Bathinda.
- Dr. Jatinder Mann, Panjab University, Chandigarh.
It’s an elaborate discussion on the Indian politics. I don’t see Dr Jagmit partial anywhere. Though the focus remained on Modi ji vs all and sundry political parties, the forces, and Individuals, ignoring the presence of INDi Alliance members like Stalin of Tamilnadu, Mamata Banerjee of WB and Vijayan of Kerala is conspicuous. They can pose a challenge to The Modi and Co and to National Interests.