BJP’s Caste Census Card: Game-Changer Or Gamble? – OpEd

In a landmark policy shift, the Government of India has announced it will conduct a caste survey alongside Census 2021, breaking from its long-held stance.

The decision, taken at a Cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday, April 30, 2025, and announced by Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, marks a historic moment—fulfilling a decades-old demand of opposition parties like the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and Samajwadi Party (SP), who have consistently championed caste-based enumeration as a tool for social justice.

Notably, this move comes despite the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), having long resisted the idea, warning it could fracture social cohesion. However, in a striking turn, RSS general secretary Dattatreya Hosabale recently signalled a pragmatic softening, stressing that if undertaken, the caste census must serve developmental, not political ends. This announcement sets the stage for a potentially transformative shift in India’s governance and welfare landscape.

This decision raises several important questions: Why has the BJP, a party historically cautious about caste-based mobilisation, now embraced a caste census? What does it hope to achieve by stepping onto a political terrain long dominated by the opposition? Is the BJP seeking to pre-empt the opposition’s agenda and position itself as both pragmatic and responsive? Could this move prove to be a political masterstroke? And ultimately, which parties or political forces stand to gain the most from this dramatic shift?

Caste and India’s Census

Caste enumeration began under British rule in the late 19th century and was a regular feature from 1881 to 1931. After independence, the 1951 Census dropped caste enumeration, except for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs), to avoid reinforcing caste identities. By 1961, while the Centre distanced itself from this practice, it permitted states to conduct their own OBC surveys. Despite the importance of caste data in shaping affirmative action, no nationwide figures have been collected since.

The Mandal Commission (1979–80), which recommended extending reservations to OBCs, relied on 1931 caste data due to this gap. The implementation of Mandal’s recommendations in the 1990s triggered intense caste-based political mobilisation, particularly in north India, strengthening regional parties like the Janata Dal, RJD, and SP, while fragmenting national politics. The last major effort to collect caste data was the 2011 Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC), which combined caste enumeration with a socio-economic survey. Today, amid renewed political and social demands, the government has approved caste enumeration in the upcoming national census.

Development or Division?

In contemporary India, the debate around caste census revolves around two competing visions. Proponents argue that without accurate, updated caste data, welfare policies and affirmative action cannot be meaningfully calibrated. They claim that a caste census is essential for realising the constitutional commitment to social justice and ensuring that marginalised groups are not left behind. 

Opponents, however, warn that caste enumeration risks reinforcing social divisions, politicising identities, and fostering inter-group resentment. Sections of the BJP and RSS have historically voiced such concerns, fearing that caste politics undermines the Hindutva project of cultural unity. 

Indeed, political realities appear to have prompted a recalibration. The opposition, especially social justice parties, was gearing up to make the caste census a central demand in the run-up to upcoming state elections. By pre-emptively adopting this agenda, the BJP has effectively neutralised a major opposition plank, while projecting itself as responsive and pragmatic.

BJP’s Political Calculus

The BJP’s embrace of the caste census can be seen as part of its broader strategy to expand its social base. While the party has historically drawn support from upper castes and urban middle classes, it has worked assiduously over the past decade to court OBCs and non-dominant castes through a mix of welfare schemes, symbolic representation, and calibrated social engineering.

By announcing the caste census, the BJP sends a powerful signal to backward-caste voters that it is attentive to their aspirations and grievances. Moreover, it potentially blunts the opposition’s ability to mobilise around the language of social justice, as the Congress, RJD, SP, and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have done in the past. 

At the same time, the BJP appears confident that its formidable political machinery and narrative-building prowess can prevent the census from being used against it. By framing the exercise as a tool for better-targeted development, rather than as a prelude to demands for expanded reservations, the BJP seeks to control the political fallout.

Challenges and Risks

However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges. A caste census will inevitably produce data that reshapes debates around quotas and representation. If, for example, OBC numbers turn out to be significantly higher than current estimates, pressure will mount to increase the 27% reservation cap, possibly reigniting the reservation debate that roiled Indian politics in the 1990s. 

Moreover, there is the risk that the release of caste data will become a political flashpoint, with different actors seeking to exploit it for electoral gain. The opposition may demand not just a census, but also a concrete commitment to rework the architecture of affirmative action. Meanwhile, dominant castes, some of whom have been agitating for inclusion in OBC lists (such as Patels in Gujarat, Jats in Haryana, and Marathas in Maharashtra), may intensify their demands.

A Political Masterstroke?

Whether the BJP’s move will prove a masterstroke or a miscalculation remains to be seen. The party has demonstrated in the past that it can co-opt opposition narratives—be it nationalism, welfare, or now social justice—and turn them to its advantage. But managing the political, social, and economic ramifications of the caste census will require extraordinary deftness. For the opposition, the challenge will be to move beyond mere demands and articulate a coherent vision of what should follow the caste census. Without this, the BJP risks reaping both the credit for responsiveness and the political gains of managing the post-census discourse.

Conclusion

The decision to conduct a caste census marks a historic shift in Indian governance and politics. It has the potential to reshape debates around development, reservation, and representation for decades to come. Whether it deepens India’s social fractures or facilitates a more equitable society will depend not just on data collection, but on how political actors choose to interpret and act on that data. As history shows, caste has always been central to Indian politics, but with this decision, it is poised to return to the very heart of national debate.