Political Strife Doesn’t Shake Libya’s Position As Africa’s Top Oil Reserves In 2025 – OpEd
Libya’s oil reserves remain a key pillar of its economy despite the ongoing political instability that has plagued the country for over a decade. While political strife has led to social unrest, economic challenges, and regional tensions, it has not diminished the strategic importance of Libya’s oil wealth. In fact, despite the turmoil, Libya continues to hold the title of Africa’s top oil reserves heading into 2025, with 48.36 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, according to a Business Insider Africa report.
The connection between political stability and economic growth is undeniable, and Libya’s prolonged political crisis has certainly been detrimental to stability, peace, and human rights. Wars, foreign interventions, and domestic strife have hindered progress, stalling infrastructure projects and leading to the shutdown of key oil fields. The shutdowns have intensified the country’s economic difficulties, making it more reliant than ever on its oil sector.
Nonetheless, Libya’s oil reserves remain its greatest asset, and they continue to drive the country’s economic engine. As of early 2025, the Arabian Gulf Company reported record production levels, reaching 304,000 barrels per day from fields like Sarir, Masla, and Nafoora. Despite an array of political and logistical challenges, the National Oil Corporation and Central Bank of Libya reported an impressive 1.417 million barrels of crude oil produced by the end of 2024, with an additional 1.469 million barrels including condensates.
Yet, Libya’s reliance on oil is both a blessing and a challenge. The oil sector accounts for over 95% of the country’s economy, and the government’s efforts to increase production face significant hurdles. To reach production targets of 1.6 million barrels per day, and eventually 2 million barrels by 2028, Libya requires an estimated $3-4 billion in investments. The 2024 oil sales generated around 90 billion dinars (approximately $18.16 billion), but this figure was down from previous years due to production declines and market fluctuations.
Political disputes and violent clashes, particularly in Zawiya, have delayed efforts to boost production. However, the government remains committed to increasing production. In early 2025, the National Oil Corporation is set to launch a licensing round for 22 areas, hoping to attract new investments and push production to 2 million barrels per day. The return of major international oil companies, such as Spain’s Repsol, Italy’s Eni, and Britain’s BP, signifies a cautiously optimistic outlook for Libya’s oil sector. Repsol, for instance, began drilling its first exploration well in a decade in December 2024, signaling a potential resurgence in exploration activities.
Libya’s oil production is far from free of complications. The country’s energy infrastructure continues to suffer from neglect and underinvestment, and external factors such as the fluctuating price of oil pose a threat to growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted that Libyan economic growth could reach 13.7% in 2025, the highest growth rate among Arab nations. This growth is largely dependent on the success of the oil sector, but there are concerns that declining oil prices and internal conflicts could slow progress.
In the coming years, Libya’s government plans to ramp up production to 1.6 million barrels per day by the end of 2025, with aspirations to reach 2 million barrels by 2028. The strategy includes the development of existing fields, the rehabilitation of infrastructure, and the attraction of foreign investment. Several local oil companies are already contributing to increased production, underscoring the country’s commitment to meeting these ambitious targets.
However, global market dynamics will also play a significant role in shaping Libya’s future in the oil industry. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of continued overproduction from OPEC Plus members and strong growth in supply from non-OPEC Plus countries. Despite these challenges, global oil consumption is expected to rise, reaching 103.9 million barrels per day in 2025. Libya’s position as the owner of Africa’s largest oil reserves gives it an important role in the global energy market, but maintaining that position will require political stability and substantial investment in both exploration and production.
In conclusion, Libya’s oil industry continues to serve as a foundation for the country’s economy in 2025. Even amid political volatility, Libya’s position as Africa’s largest holder of oil reserves remains unshaken. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but with strategic investments and ongoing efforts to stabilize the sector, Libya has the potential to capitalize on its vast energy resources, securing its place in the global energy market.
