The Horn Of Africa States: The Dynamics Of The Cold War Never Left The Region – OpEd
The Horn of Africa States is an important junction in world affairs and this pivots to its vital linkage in world shipping and hence trade and economic development. The West, as generally represented by the United States but in the past led by Europeans, and the East represented in the past by mostly Russia but now involving rising China and India, have always vied for control the Horn of Africa States as represented by the SEEDS countries i.e. Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan. There was never the interest of these countries at heart in any of these competing forces and unfortunately the countries of the region have always been, over the past two hundred years, pawns in battles they have no control over or no say in.
There are even presently regional powers that have also presented themselves in the political and economic battles raging in the region, all vying to demonstrate they are for this camp or that in what generally Horn Africans could describe as the bride helpers or groom helpers in marriage ceremonies. They work for either the West or the East or both, which confuses the Horn of Africa in more ways than one or perhaps this is the beginnings of a more multipolar world.
The Horn of Africa States region has suffered greatly and lost many of its youthful population through this intense competition driven by geo-strategic, geo-political, geo-economic factors. Climate change manifested in more regular and recurring weather calamities was not helpful either. NGOs who thrive is such situations have themselves have worked in pulling down whatever governance infrastructures there were in the region through their indirect and ill-intentioned activities in the countries of the region without going through the central authorities of the governments of the region, thus undermining them in many respects.
The Horn of Africa States for good or bad was never out of the cold war because of its geostrategic location despite the many talks of re-emerging cold war lately. The Horn of Africa never saw respite over the past decades even when the Soviet Union collapsed, and NATO and the West declared themselves supreme power at one time – the unipolar world.
Terrorism and jihadism were introduced to the region and continue to wreak havoc in the region. Military forces from non-regional parties mostly, but also from the region were deployed under the African Union flag, and at one time under the United Nations flag, to fight off these new devilish forces that have killed, maimed and destroyed lives in the region and more particularly Somalia which has seen a large part of its population flee from the region, run and spread over the world’s nations. Today they are found in over 140 countries.
A generally rich and resourceful region was turned, out of the blue, into a hungry region and one would be surprised to find massive numbers of internally displaced camps across the region. Its ports which should have played significant roles for international trade were all turned out to become mostly ghost ports with little or no business. The region has been turned into a corrupt and politically unstable region and hence unable to help itself under the present circumstances.
Worse the region has now been turned into a real battleground with military and naval forces of many countries in display in the region. They include, of course those of the United States, China, the UK, France and indeed regional forces such as those of the UAE, Egypt and Türkiye. Many other countries are also present in the region militarily increasing the concerns over the militarization of the region.
The complex story of the region is driven by many factors which are geo-strategic, geo-political and geo-economic and enforced through a complex web of security related presence. The Horn of Africa States and of course its seas and oceans (the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Somali Sea and the Indian Ocean) link Asia, Africa and Europe – a historic link which continues to this day. The vast natural resources of the Arabian Peninsula in terms of energy source soon to be complimented by the region’s own potential hydrocarbon resources attract many of the competitors to the region which have thus prompted the presence of military and naval forces from these competitors in the region in the pretext of protecting the shipping lanes that pass through the region.
This has also urged landlocked Ethiopia on the pretext of a large population to illegally seek and attempt wrenching part of Somalia’s territory and sea, further complicating the already complicated Horn of Africa States instabilities. This is, indeed, an attempt and a challenge to erase the old boundaries and create new ones in the region. It only complicates matters and may lead to a breakdown of countries like Ethiopia into its historic component parts of different nations and nationalities, which were forced together through the European colonialism of the nineteenth century and their local supporters in the region at the time.
The geopolitics of the ports of the region have become serious focal points of the competition. This is manifested by the creation of the first foreign naval base of China in the region and the increasing presence of the Indian navy in the waters of the region. The traditional Western navies which considered the regional waters as their turf must have been taken by surprise and this complicates matters in the region. The ports of the region are currently witnessing a complex competition among those foreign forces from afar.
The United Arab Emirates is one of the most active foreign actors in the region beyond the traditional Western countries, and they have managed so far to almost take over the ports of Berbera, Bossaso and Kismayo in Somalia after being kicked out of Djibouti. Türkiye is currently present in Mogadishu Somalia, but other ports of the region are being subjected to intense competitions among foreign countries for control. The Egyptians, after being absent from the region over the past four decades, have also suddenly shown interest in the region, driven in the main by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam or the GERD and not particularly the security and/or unity of Somalia, as they claim.
The region’s abundant resources have also played an important part in the matrix of calculations for these foreign parties. Note the region is reported to be abundantly rich in hydrocarbon reserves (oil, gas, and coal), and minerals important for the new technologies such as coltan, cobalt, lithium copper and rare earths and traditional jewelry minerals such as gold, silver, and many other precious stones such as rubies, emeralds, sapphires and others. The region also enjoys an immense livestock population and an equally immense maritime food resources. It has a large agricultural base and arable land which appears to have been disrupted by NGOs operating in the region and pretending to be providing food to the hungry populations instead of helping them produce their own foods.
Despite the manifest interest of other parties in the region, it is most unfortunate to note that the countries of the region do not see matters eye to eye and that they do not cooperate to determine the future of their region. They let others with a fistful of dollars to determine the destiny of the region. The current ill-advised attempt of Ethiopia to take a part of Somalia’s sea and land and threats to other countries of the region, is but a perfect example of the idiosyncrasies of the region. This may lead to a further disarray in the region and of course disruption of life.
It would have been useful if the region saw itself as one region and not as separate countries acting individually. The stakes are too high for single countries when others are coming in blocks. It is no doubt a manifestly separate geopolitical region and the leaders of the region should have adopted that stand to withstand the continuous pressures being exerted on them. They could have formalized better platforms to coordinate among themselves on the political, economic and even social fronts. After all, the region is populated by people who have similar historic backgrounds not only in terms of ethnicity but also culture and languages.
There is a breakdown of communications among the countries so far and particularly between Somalia and Ethiopia and between Eritrea ad Ethiopia but there are always opportunities to correct the mistakes made. Ethiopia could cancel the illegal MoU it signed with one of the regions of Somalia bypassing the central authority and hence threatening the sovereignty and unity of Somalia, while Ethiopia could also stop threatening the coastal countries for access to a sea. It already has access to a sea through commercial contracts and it could have more, but ownership of a coast cannot be part of the bargaining chip. It has to accept it is a landlocked country like many other countries who are even larger is size like Mongolia and Kazakhstan
It is clear the competition over the region has never stopped the cold war, which continues to this day. It certainly goes back to the opening of the Suez Canal when the competition was between the European colonialist countries of the time. Many actors are now involved including regional powers who seem to be intent on showing their prowess at the expense of the currently poor Horn African countries. It does thus seem that the cold war dynamics never really left the region. The Region’s geostrategic location continues to frame the security, the economics and, of course, the politics of the region and, of course, those who have interest in the region.
