A Golden Dawn For Balochistan, Or Just Another Mirage? – OpEd

The dust of promise has begun to stir in the rugged deserts of Balochistan. After decades of neglect, unrest, and rhetorical gestures toward development, Pakistan’s most resource-rich yet impoverished province is finally drawing the kind of attention that could change its fate. At the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2025, held in Islamabad earlier this month, Balochistan took center stage—not for its insurgency or grievances, but for what lies beneath its scorched earth.

The jewel in this crown: Reko Diq. Buried under the desolate hills near the Iran-Afghanistan border is one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper and gold reserves. And now, foreign capital is circling like hawks over a long-dormant carcass.

U.S. and Saudi interest has redefined the stakes. Eric Meyer of the U.S. State Department sat with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to underscore American appetite for Pakistan’s mineral wealth. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Manara Minerals is eyeing a 10-20% stake in Reko Diq, aligning Riyadh’s economic diversification goals with Islamabad’s developmental aspirations. Barrick Gold, the project’s majority stakeholder, is also pushing to raise over $2 billion in financing, with cash flows expected from 2028.

This is not just about copper and gold. It’s about rewriting Balochistan’s relationship with the state, the world, and most importantly, with itself.

For too long, Balochistan has lived at the periphery of Pakistan’s national story—its people underrepresented, its grievances ignored, its youth radicalized by the emptiness of promised progress. But this new wave of interest could change that. A 25% equity stake for Balochistan’s government in Reko Diq could translate into over a billion dollars in royalties and dividends, money that could fund healthcare, education, and clean water in underserved districts like Chagai. Roads, power lines, and infrastructure are being built not just to extract wealth—but, hopefully, to create it locally.

But before we break out the confetti, a word of caution: Pakistan has seen grand promises before.

The involvement of foreign investors—especially U.S. and Saudi—could bring more than just money. Their participation may inject long-absent transparency, labor protections, and environmental standards into a sector long dogged by secrecy and scandal. But their stakes are also strategic: securing rare earths for the clean energy transition, and cementing geopolitical alliances in South Asia.

The Pakistan Army, ever the power broker in matters of national security and commerce, has pledged to protect these investments by deploying special security zones around Reko Diq. It’s a reminder of the risks that persist: Baloch separatists have historically viewed resource extraction as exploitation, and without a locally inclusive model, foreign investments could reignite old fires rather than extinguish them.

To avoid this, inclusion must precede extraction. It is encouraging that 7,500 construction jobs and 4,000 permanent roles are expected to be created, with skills development programs already being planned for Baloch youth. But the people of Balochistan need more than jobs—they need a say in how their resources are used, how their land is reshaped, and how their communities are compensated.

The mineral beneath Balochistan may belong to the state, but the future built atop it must belong to the people.

In the end, the test of Reko Diq—and the investment bonanza it has triggered—will not be measured in billions raised or copper tons exported. It will be measured in how many schools are built in Nushki, how many girls in Dalbandin get clean drinking water, and how many Baloch see their future in Pakistan, not beyond it.

If Islamabad can get that right, Reko Diq won’t just be a mine. It’ll be a milestone.