South Asia In Transition: Geopolitical Impacts Of China’s Expanding Role – OpEd
China’s expanding techno-economic and geopolitical influence is a well-established reality. Even Western nations, which typically have the advantage of stronger state and civil society institutions, are finding it difficult to counter China’s rising influence efforts. In more vulnerable regions, particularly South Asia, where China positions itself as a dominant power, countries are facing challenges due to Beijing’s increasing activism and influence operations. China’s economic investments and military involvement are steadily growing across South Asia, particularly in countries like Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and most recently, the Maldives.
Over the past decade, China’s growing influence in South Asia has not only been driven by its funding and execution of large-scale infrastructure projects, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but also reflects its broader geopolitical strategy in the region, which increasingly challenges the influence of the United States and other Western powers. While much focus has been placed on the debt burdens these projects have generated and the economic crises that have followed, less attention has been given to how China engages with political leaders in these countries to advance its strategic interests, including its competition with the U.S. for regional dominance.
China’s ability to swiftly implement infrastructure projects has helped it build strong ties with South Asian governments, often aligning itself with ruling elites and top-tier military generals to gain political leverage. However, these projects do not always align with the actual needs of these countries, leading to wasteful spending and unsustainable debt. For instance, in Sri Lanka, the Hambantota Port project, financed by Chinese loans, failed to generate adequate business, forcing Sri Lanka to lease the port to China on a 99-year agreement, which critics argue has geopolitical implications, potentially giving China a strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean – a region of significant interest to both India and the U.S. Similarly, the Maldives, once a nation firmly within India’s sphere of influence, has also seen an increase in Chinese investments and political outreach, illustrating China’s growing clout in a region traditionally seen as within India’s strategic backyard. Under President Abdulla Yameen, pursued several Chinese-funded infrastructure projects that have left the country heavily indebted, raising concerns about China’s ability to exert influence over key Indian Ocean nations.
Nepal, a landlocked nation sandwiched between China and India, has seen Beijing’s influence increase in recent years. China’s investment in Nepal’s infrastructure, including roadways, hydropower, and telecommunications, comes with political implications, as Beijing seeks to counterbalance Indian influence in the region. Bangladesh, too, has been courted by China, which has made significant investments in the country’s transportation and energy infrastructure, further entrenching its role as a regional economic powerhouse.
In Pakistan, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was supposed to bring economic transformation, but the energy crisis persists due to deeper political and economic inefficiencies, which Chinese investments have not addressed. CPEC promises to modernize Pakistan’s infrastructure and energy sectors, critics argue that the financial dependency created by Chinese loans could undermine Pakistan’s long-term sovereignty. While China’s investments have helped it gain influence, they often overlook long-term sustainability, leaving successor governments to manage the consequences of increased debt and underperforming projects, which also fuels public criticism.
Similarly, China’s growing technological influence in South Asia through investments in telecommunications, digital infrastructure, and smart cities reflects a broader strategy to extend its reach into critical sectors like 5G, e-commerce, and cyber-security, posing a direct challenge to U.S. technological and economic leadership. Chinese firms like Huawei and ZTE play pivotal roles in 5G expansion, while companies such as Alibaba and Tencent are making significant inroads into the region’s e-commerce and fintech sectors.
In developing digital infrastructure, including fiber optic cables and data centers, China is laying the foundation for long-term influence in South Asia, while also exporting surveillance technologies, raising concerns about digital authoritarianism and increased state control. This expansion complicates U.S. efforts to promote democratic governance and open markets in the region, particularly as countries become increasingly dependent on Chinese technology and expertise. India’s response to this growing influence has been one of caution, particularly in telecommunications, as it seeks to curb China’s reach in sectors it views as critical to national security.
However, despite India’s efforts and U.S. concerns, China’s economic power and infrastructure investments in South Asia give it a significant strategic advantage. As a result, China’s deepening presence in the region not only raises questions about the sustainability of its development model but also has broader geopolitical implications, as it enhances China’s soft power and undermines U.S. influence in a region that is increasingly becoming a key theater for global competition between the two superpowers.
Beijing’s growing activism across South Asia is not without challenges. Critics argue that China’s approach can foster local resentment, especially when it comes to concerns about debt-trap diplomacy, environmental degradation from infrastructure projects, or loss of sovereignty. Nevertheless, the increasing interdependence created by China’s investments in South Asia leaves many nations in a precarious position, often caught between the economic benefits of Chinese partnership and the political costs of aligning too closely with Beijing.
China’s rising influence across South Asia is emblematic of its broader global ambitions. The region’s strategic location, combined with its developmental needs, makes it a key target for Beijing’s broader geopolitical aspirations, positioning China as a major power player not only in South Asia but on the global stage. As the dynamics of the region continue to shift, the challenge for South Asian nations remains how to engage with China while safeguarding their autonomy and balancing their relationships with other global powers, particularly India and the West. How has China’s policies, including “Wolf Warrior Diplomacy”, weigh heavily on countries to take sides against the U.S. or India, and how might this affect South Asia in the future? This remains to be observed and investigated further.