The Horn Of Africa States: Africa’s Prolonged Stay In Power And The Case Of Somalia – OpEd
For a democracy to be a democracy, there are rules that all members of a society must adhere to and respect. They include among others free and fair elections, rights and duties, and basic values like equality and accountability. The most important of all these rules is acceptance of the rule of law, which applies equally to all people, and everyone, and especially the government, who must all abide by it.
It is the unfortunate story of Africa that the majority of its leaders do not abide by the rule of law and once they are welcomed into a seat of power, they overstay in that seat for years, even changing constitutions to suit them and their grab of power by any means. They never respect the term limits, which is part of most constitutions, and which is designed to manage leadership succession. They act as undeclared monarchs, using even their children and family members as major safeguards in sensitive places of power. Most of such countries with overstaying leaders have regressed socially, economically, and politically.
Those countries in Africa who have practiced frequent transfer of power have proven themselves better developed and better societies. Countries like Botswana, Senegal and Mauritius have all thrived under the democratic systems they have installed in their countries.
It is the regular of transfers of power, which gives people hope and trust in the systems of governance, although this cannot be a guarantee against a bad governance where a leader can do damage to a country and society. The damage is, however, restrained by the time limitation and the transfer of power.
Many leaders in Africa have resorted to changing constitutions through dubious processes to extend their stay in power and it is the raison d’etre of this article with respect to Somalia. Following nearly a decade of democracy in its early years, Somalia experienced a shift to long-term rule by a single leader for over two decades. This gave rise to a revolt of the population, assisted by neighboring countries, which had grudges to grind against the country.
This led to the collapse of the state and the continuing unhealed wounds of the nation of which it still suffers from, even after decades and decades of chaos. It brought the current clan-based federal infrastructure, where the member states appear to be almost independent of each other. It is the main cause of the instabilities of the country, and the ability of foreign imported terror groups to install themselves in the country as a safe haven.
It is not a surprise! Almost all the leaders of the neighboring countries are affected by this addiction to power and have overstayed in power for years. Somalia should have been different after suffering from a long period of chaos, but unfortunately, it appears Somalia and Somalis have learned nothing from the chaos or from the long overstay in power of a single leader, which collapsed the country and government, in the first place.
Unfortunately, as is the case with the voters in most other African countries with overstaying leaders, like Cameroon, Uganda, Rwanda or South Sudan, and others, Somali voters also play a part. They allow authoritarian regimes to continue ruining their countries. They even re-elect corrupt leaders to the highest seat of power in the country. They do not hold their leaders to account and it is how despotic leaderships continue to prevail in the country. Somalis, themselves, therefore, are not blameless!
The question on how one could address this problem is the problem. It is what we will attempt to discuss in this short article. It is important to note that this involves legal, structural and social safeguards that should be inbuilt into the process of governance, if one has to avoid any group entrenching themselves in power. Here follows some thoughts in this regard.
There must be a constitutional time-limited mandate, which clearly denies any party to change the constitution, unless there is approval through a national referendum. At present , Somalia is not ready for it and, therefore, whatever has been agreed to in the past collectively, cannot and should not be changed. If the whole system was replaced through, say a technocrat council to recreate and reconstitute the country’s institutions, they should also not be allowed to extend the mandate given to them for the term they are allowed to complete the job.
There should always be an automatic transition clause, putting things in order for no more than a month, in any constitution or mandate between two successive administrations in case there is some dispute. The mandate of a leaving administration should never be extended.
This would always require an oversight body, whose job is to monitor that an administration is fulfilling its mandate in compliance with the constitution. They may consist of representatives of selected senior elders of the society, religious leaders, and regional leaders. Men and women who are selected for their righteousness, virtuousness, and respectfulness among the society, can form part of such an oversight body. This should be part of the constitution.
Internal dissent should not be outlawed when a deviation occurs through even whistleblowing, if and when necessary. It is how to keep leaders in check all the time. A constitution or a mandate of a technocratic council replacing the current governance systems to prepare the country for a better future than is currently the case, should always include a sunset clause, where the mandate of a governing group (including parliament and government or the technocrat team) automatically expires and is dissolved with no mechanism for extension unless approved by a national referendum.
It is the nature of governance that a consitution or a mandate should always carry a clause that defines the requirements and processes of replacing a current administration with another one. These will include a pre-agreed electoral map, where the governing team must implement during its mandate for the transition to a successive team.
It is an African phenomenon, although other countries like Russia and Türkiye all have leaders who have stayed in power for long years. It is an issue which Somalia should avoid, considering its societal infrastructure. It is a country where transfer of power is most appropriate to entrench the rule of law, trust in the systems and, indeed, justice.
This current year 2025 appears to be tumultuous for Somalia as it is going through the final year of the current administration, which appears to be working on its re-election process. The administration and Somalis, in general, both at home and in the diaspora, should weigh this heavily and carefully, and not look only at their personal agendas and/or clan agendas, but at the national agenda.
It is a nation at a crossroads, where there appears to be a national breakdown again in its political landscape, with the current corrupt political class standing at polar opposite ends of the political spectrum. It is where the current administration believes that they are doing a good job reforming the constitution to enable implementation of universal suffrage, while the political opposition wing believes that the country is not ready as the government is not in control of its capital, let alone its total territory.
The country is living through a hollow pipe with little air and its political class appear to be engrossed in pipe dreams. It truly needs a new thought process, different from what is at the table currently.
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