ASEAN Security At A Crossroads – OpEd
ASEAN security architecture in the 21st century faces an exceptional level of stress because of ongoing traditional conflicts, rising great power competition, and new non-traditional threats, which artificial intelligence presents as a disruptive force.
ASEAN needs to modify its strategic framework because it confronts various security threats that are linked together. The bloc experiences strategic marginalisation because its consensus-based mechanisms fail to address new threats effectively when structural changes and coordinated innovation efforts are not implemented.
The most dangerous security threats in ASEAN’s geopolitical environment stem from disputes between nations. The South China Sea serves as the main source of maritime tensions because China and four ASEAN member states, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei, have competing claims that have resulted in rising military presence and decreased confidence.
The Asia Pacific Regional Security Assessment recorded a 15% rise in Chinese coast guard ship confrontations with Southeast Asian naval forces during 2024, compared to 2023, and dangerous water cannon incidents and ship manoeuvres became more frequent. ASEAN unity faces strain because member states have varying levels of preparedness to handle Beijing. The ongoing crisis in Myanmar continues to worsen humanitarian conditions while creating more instability in the region since the 2021 military takeover entered its fourth year.
The Five Point Consensus launched by ASEAN has not stopped the junta from conducting military operations in 2024, which forced 2.6 million people to leave their homes and created instability in Thailand and India’s Northeast region, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). The Cambodia–Thailand border conflict demonstrates how ASEAN member states can fight each other through military action despite being ignored by the international community. The Prasat Ta Muen Thom temple area experienced hostilities during early 2024, which caused 12 deaths and forced more than 3000 people to leave their homes. The violence ended after Malaysia helped negotiate a settlement, yet this incident proved ASEAN lacked the power to stop or prevent conflicts between its member states. The principle of non-interference stops ad hoc mediation from taking independent actions to settle disputes that threaten regional stability, which results in force becoming a typical solution for internal conflicts.
Great power rivalries create additional challenges for these matters. The Indo-Pacific region has become a strategic area where different security systems compete against each other because Washington strengthens its alliances through AUKUS and the Quad, while Beijing advances its Belt and Road Initiative and security partnerships with Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. ASEAN’s position as a central organisation has become more of a concept because outside powers choose to work through direct agreements between two or three countries instead of using ASEAN frameworks. The division of ASEAN into smaller states weakens their ability to negotiate as a single unit while making them vulnerable to external pressure and enabling outside powers to take advantage of internal ASEAN conflicts.
Non-traditional threats now spread across a wider area as their operational complexity has increased significantly. Cybersecurity vulnerabilities have become the most critical issue in the field. Between January and August 2024, ASEAN member states experienced 1,594 cyberattacks, which included a major ransomware attack on Indonesia’s National Data Centre that caused weeks-long disruptions to government operations. The number of Distributed Denial of Service attacks keeps increasing, but attackers now prioritise data theft and critical system disruption over traditional attacks, which include data breaches and defacement incidents during August 2024. The associated risks of artificial intelligence have increased the danger of these threats. AI-driven phishing campaigns, deepfake propaganda, and automated vulnerability scanning tools are being utilised by both state-affiliated and criminal actors. The INTERPOL Asia and South Pacific Cyberthreat Assessment 2024 reveals that unskilled operators can now perform dangerous cyberattacks through generative AI technology. The various digital governance systems and ASEAN member states’ different cybersecurity funding levels create security vulnerabilities.
Climate change operates as an innovative force which creates new instability patterns throughout the world. The Mekong River basin, which supports more than 60 million people, faces dual threats from rising dam construction in the upper reaches and unpredictable weather patterns. The Mekong River Commission documented a 20% decrease in dry season water flow during 2024, which resulted in worsening food shortages across Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. The Asian Development Bank predicts that Southeast Asia will lose up to 11% of its GDP by 2100 because of uncontrolled climate change, which will cause sea levels to rise and flood low-lying areas in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. Environmental pressures create security issues because nations compete for limited resources, which leads to border conflicts and population movements.
Multiple structural flaws prevent ASEAN from effectively responding to the crisis. The consensus-based decision-making process fails to deliver quick responses during cyber incidents, AI-driven disinformation events, and border conflicts. The two-tier security environment emerges from capability differences between states in military, technological and regulatory areas, which make weaker states vulnerable to destabilisation through entry points. The lack of enforcement mechanisms results in non-compliance with all existing agreements. The need for members to choose between two opposing groups creates a threat to neutrality because it leads to alignment with one side against the other, which damages unity. The absence of a regional AI governance framework leaves ASEAN vulnerable to the weaponisation of emerging technologies, jeopardising political stability and public trust.
Organisations need to carry out complete structural and environmental changes to solve this problem. ASEAN needs to create a permanent system for conflict prevention and resolution, which would have the power to handle member-state disputes through mediation and peacekeeping operations and monitoring activities. The organisation needs to change its non-interference policy to enable quick intervention when internal crises in one area begin to directly impact neighbouring regions. ASEAN needs to speed up work on creating a unified AI governance system across the region while standardising cybersecurity measures and building a shared cyber response team. Security planning needs to incorporate climate resilience through joint funding of disaster preparedness and sustainable resource management initiatives. The implementation of these measures requires political determination, combined resources, and acknowledgement that modern sovereignty requires joint defence systems instead of absolute independence.
ASEAN operates within a security environment which combines established threats with new challenges, including territorial disputes in the South China Sea and Thailand border conflict, and ongoing political instability in Myanmar, great power competition, AI-based cyber threats and climate change impacts. The 2024 data shows a critical situation because ASEAN needs to handle three critical issues which determine its ability to adjust to changing circumstances. The bloc stands at risk of becoming an inactive spectator in its strategic environment because it cannot execute rapid, coordinated military operations. The region needs to transform into an active security community which can handle modern threats, or else it will lose control to outside forces and unaffiliated groups that could destabilise the area.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.
References
- Ali, A. S., Zaaba, Z. F., Singh, M. M., Anuar, N. B., & Shariff, M. R. B. M. (2025). Advancing cybersecurity in ASEAN: Current trends, emerging challenges, and opportunities for enhanced resilience. International Journal of Information Security. Springer Nature.
- Rattanapong, P., Sukma, N., & Darakorn Na Ayuthaya, S. (2025). Determinants of cybersecurity investment in ASEAN organisations: An integrated structural equation modelling approach. Frontiers in Communications and Networks. Frontiers.
- Kulothungan, V. (2025). Securing the AI frontier: Urgent ethical and regulatory imperatives for AI-driven cybersecurity. arXiv.
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