Russia Suspends Its Activities Relating To New START Treaty – OpEd

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Following President Vladimir Putin concrete announcement of suspending Russia’s membership in New START Treaty, both the Federation Council (Senate) and State Duma (House of Representatives) swiftly moved to give legal backing on February 22. Russia, finally, suspended its activities relating to the New START Treaty. 

“I am compelled to announce today that Russia is suspending its membership in the New START Treaty. To reiterate, we are not withdrawing from the Treaty, but rather suspending our participation. Before we come back to discussing this issue, we must have a clear idea of what NATO countries such as France or Great Britain have at stake, and how we will account for their strategic arsenals, that is, the Alliance’s combined offensive capabilities,” Putin said during his traditional annual address at the Federation Assembly. 

Putin then submitted the bill to the State Duma on February 21. The bill says that a decision to resume the fulfillment of the Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) shall be made by the Russian president.

According to the bill’s explanatory note, the treaty, signed in Prague on April 8, 2010, vests each side with the power to conduct inspections and thereby exercise control over compliance with the treaty.

The next working day February 22, both the Federation Council and the State Duma held their sessions aimed at discussing further questions and some aspects leading to the suspension of the the New START Treaty. The Federation Council and the State Duma considered Vladimir Putin’s initiative titled “On the suspension by the Russian Federation of the Treaty between Russia and the United States of America on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Weapons.”

Chairman of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, pointed out clearly that “by ceasing implementing its obligations and rejecting our country’s proposals on global security issues, the United States of America destroyed the architecture of international stability. The USA led the world to conflicts and challenges. The current situation is the result of Washington’s foreign affairs. Members of the US Congress should understand the situation caused by Biden and its possible consequences.”

The draft law was unanimously adopted by members of the Federation Council and the State Duma. The document suspends the Treaty concluded in Prague on 8 April 2010. The decision to renew the Treaty will be made by the President of the Russian Federation. The law comes into force as of the date of its official publication.

In addition to above, the Russia’s Foreign Ministry provided a detailed assessment of the deplorable state of affairs regarding the implementation of the New START Treaty resulting from the destructive actions by the United States in the context of this agreement, as well as its overall policy line to weaken the security of the Russian Federation and strangle the country in political and economic terms. Building on the approaches outlined earlier, the Foreign Ministry further noted the following negative factors preventing the New START from being fully operational, which was the fault of the United States.

Local Russian media published these couple of days several discussions and opinions by experts on the subject. For instance, Financial Daily Vedomosti wrote to explain that Russia was not withdrawing from the treaty and was ready to resume participation if the nuclear potential of France and the UK were taken into account. That however, Moscow may resume nuclear tests in case the US makes such a move.

Russia’s decision to suspend its participation in New START may eventually lead to the treaty’s collapse, judging by similar suspensions in the past, Russian International Affairs Council expert Alexander Yermakov pointed out. The move could trigger a rise in mutual “nuclear fears” in countries with nuclear capabilities in a situation where there is no transparency.

The end of New START may deal a blow to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which is at the core of non-proliferation policy. The so-called “threshold states,” who are close to creating nuclear weapons, will now have additional excuses and reasons to continue developing such weapons, Yermakov noted.

Putin emphasized that the implementation of New START was being suspended but Russia could return to the treaty under new conditions, where the nuclear capabilities of France and the UK are taken into consideration, editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine Fyodor Lukyanov noted. This means that the model of bilateral agreements on arms reduction, as it was developed in the 1960s-1970s, has now ceased to exist and there is no new model on the horizon and perhaps, there won’t be one.

Discussions of the status of NATO’s nuclear-weapons member states with regard to Russian-US strategic arms control are long overdue, said Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. 

Still, NATO has been avoiding related topics in its statements on New START. Meanwhile, Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s Engels air base, which involved at minimum US intelligence, run counter to the spirit of the New START treaty, just like many other current developments. However, the parties could have tried to resolve these contradictions within the treaty. The previous suspensions of treaties, namely the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, make it clear that it’s impossible to revive them afterwards, the expert concluded.

The decision to suspend Russia’s participation in the New START treaty would not be reversed any time soon because of the continuing rapid deterioration of US-Russia ties, basically, the treaty was moribund, Indian international relations expert and former Indian Ambassador to Russia Kanwal Sibal told TASS.

Sibal believes that “the international community will be concerned about the breakdown of the only remaining nuclear disarmament treaty and the re-emergence of a nuclear arms race which will put pressure on other nuclear weapon states to increase their arsenals-China is already doing it-and may incentivize some non-nuclear countries to go nuclear. Already some countries in Europe are talking of nuclear sharing.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty has chances to be reinstated as it was, but that depends on how the US will act regarding Russia, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said at a joint meeting of Federation Council’s Committee on International Affairs and its Committee on Defense and Security..

“There are chances that the New START will be reinstated as it was, but that completely and utterly depends on US behavior, its comprehension, or the failure to comprehend, that the policy it conducts toward Russia is malignant,” he said.

The Deputy Minister said that if the situation continues to develop along the current lines and “the anti-Russian focus remains in place,” then it will be hard to imagine that Moscow will return to compliance with the treaty. An exception will be made for compliance with the pact’s key provisions, Ryabkov said.

As of September 1, 2022, Russia had 540 deployed nuclear weapons delivery vehicles, 1,549 nuclear warheads and 759 deployed and non-deployed launchers. The United States has 659 delivery vehicles, 1,420 warheads and 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers. Experts believe that a rough parity between the strategic nuclear forces of Russia and the United States remains, according to reports.

The strategic arms reduction treaty was signed by Russian and US presidents, Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama, in Prague on April 8, 2010. The document was signed for ten years (until February 2021) with the possibility of extension for a period of no more than five years. It includes an exit provision.

The first meeting of the consultative commission following the start of the special military operation was to be held in Cairo on November 29 – December 6, 2022. However, one day before the meeting, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it was postponed. Later, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova and Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said that Russia could not discuss New START with the United States as long as it was supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Kester Kenn Klomegah

Kester Kenn Klomegah is an independent researcher and a policy consultant on African affairs in the Russian Federation and Eurasian Union. He has won media awards for highlighting economic diplomacy in the region with Africa. Currently, Klomegah is a Special Representative for Africa on the Board of the Russian Trade and Economic Development Council. He enjoys travelling and visiting historical places in Eastern and Central Europe. Klomegah is a frequent and passionate contributor to Eurasia Review.

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