War Not An Option For India – OpEd

Forget about the shrill TV anchors who want war, surgical strikes and maximum punishment for Pakistan. Forget about politicians who also demand much the same.

War hype does not work as national policy. 

We are all outraged by the terror strike in Pahalgam which some feel was waiting to happen. All due to the complacency which has become a national habit. In the all-party meeting on Pahalgam, the Home Ministry has admitted to “lapse”. Whether it was a failure caused by gaps in intelligence gathering or in interpreting raw intelligence to accurately project the lurking threat may be debated. Public memory in India is short, institutional memory rare and officialdom memory conveniently resurrected to suit particular narratives like “all is well in Kashmir after abrogation of Art 370”. Truth is the casualty and incidents like the Pahalgam are the result.

It is true Kashmir’s tourism economy has sharply picked up in the last three years and the locals now have a huge stake in peace. Hence the furious anti-terror protests across the valley after Pahalgam, as economics and emotions converge to help Kashmiris reap the dividends of relative peace.  But the frequent encounters between jihadis and security forces across Jammu and Kashmir did point to the continuing threat of terror strikes which could not be ignored. 

What Next ?

What next is the inevitable question ? Do we take this lying down as a nation? Surely not. We need to impose a high cost on Pakistan, from where the terrorists came into Pahalgam. But can we go to war, even a limited war with Pakistan! Most senior military veterans I spoke to after Pahalgam are against war, even a limited war. 

Some say India must not repeat the mistake of Russia or Israel by hastily going for some military action that can escalate into war. Pakistan has nuclear weapons and  reckless generals rather than responsible politicians are the ones who have the finger on the launch buttons. The Pakistan army’s psyops assets are already threatening a nuclear exchange if India goes for a military riposte.

Cost of War 

Some veterans point to the cost of waging war which would be a huge burden on the Indian economy. The Cost Of War project in Brown University (USA) estimated that the average daily cost of wars waged by the US in Iraq and then Afghanistan varied between $ 7.9 million to $ 1.04 billion per day. 

Russia is spending around  $ 300 million on an average  per day for its war in Ukraine. Various analysis suggest the average per day cost of waging a full-scale war would vary between $300 to 500 million per day which is 0.007-0.011 percentage of Indian GDP in 2025 (Grok). 

And any limited war runs the risk of uncontrollable escalation since we are dealing with Pakistan where the military, now led by reckless army chief Gen Asim Munir, runs the show . The Pakistani army needs conflict to justify its control on the country’s polity and has failed to shed its self-destructive propensity even after loosing half the country in 1971. 

The legacy of brutal and mindless suppression institutionalised in Pakistan’s military culture by Yayha-Tikka Khan in 1971 runs deep in the psyche of Asim Munir who plotted Pulwama as ISI chief and who set the tone for Pahalgam by his “Kashmir our jugular vein” rant earlier this month. So why would Munir unleash a Pahalgam rather than an Uri or Pulwama now and why would his proxies target Hindu civilians rather than Indian soldiers? 

The answer lies in Munir’s thought process which seeks to unsettle both immediate neighbours , India and Afghanistan. He has unleashed his air power on the Afghan border after some rebel actions because Munir feels the Afghan Taliban backs the TTP . But such conventional military actions has turned the once friendly Afghan Taliban into an implacable foe, burying hopes of strategic depth for Pakistan. 

Munir has blamed India for allegedly backing Baloch rebels who have humiliated the Pakistan army by a series of successful hostile actions like the hijack of the Jafrabad Express train. He would know from his proxies that Indian security forces are much more careful after Uri and Pulwama and repeat of such strikes may not be possible because of extra security measures in place.  But all tourist sites in Kashmir cannot be physically guarded and picking on one unguarded spot to kill unsuspecting tourists would be one way to remind the world Kashmir is still an unresolved issue. 

The Real Motive Behind the Killings

But the real motive behind the killing of Hindu tourists selectively is more sinister — to inflame communal passions across India and set off religious riots by exploiting the turmoil over the protests and violence following the new Waqf law. 

If that is Pakistan army’s strategic aim, India must do everything possible to foil it. Kashmiris have set the tone by demonstratively protesting against the terror strike and doing much to comfort the survivors. Many survivors have narrated their experiences in public domain, like a lady from Kerala who said she lost her father but “found two brothers in Kashmir.” The rest of the country should take a cue and avoid any divisive action that plays into Pakistan’s hands. 

As far as imposing cost on Pakistan, India can go for a tit-for-tat policy of appropriate response. Since it has already been blamed for backing the insurgency in Balochistan, India might as well start to back it effectively. A low-cost below-the-surface offensive that can bleed Pakistan. Its mindless military oppression has already turned a low-intensity insurgency into a strong armed resistance movement in Balochistan. The alienation is widening over exploitation of Balochistan’s considerable resources with no ploughback into the local economy. If Indian tourists are welcomed by Kashmiris because their spending boosts the local economy, Punjabi workers and China-funded extractive projects are hated by the Baloch tribespeople and seen as symbols of exploitation. It is not much different with Pashtuns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Mohajhirs in Sindh.  Pakistan’s many ethnic faultlines can be easily exploited to pursue a policy of ‘thousand cuts’. One can trust the Pakistan army not to have learnt the lessons of 1971 and continue mindless repression in the multiple conflict zones to make matters worse.