Caught In The Crossfire: India’s Oil Diplomacy In The Ukraine War – OpEd
India has long presented itself as the flag-bearer of “strategic autonomy,” a neutral power navigating carefully between East and West. But beneath this rhetoric lies a contradictory and opportunistic energy strategy that exposes New Delhi to accusations of duplicity. By buying record volumes of cheap Russian crude while exporting refined diesel often derived from that very crude to Ukraine, India has simultaneously bankrolled Moscow’s war economy and bolstered Kyiv’s fuel security.
The scale of India’s energy partnership with Russia is striking. By August 2025, India was importing close to two million barrels per day of Russian crude, up from 1.6 million barrels the previous month. Russia now accounts for almost 39 percent of India’s total crude imports, surpassing traditional suppliers like Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
In 2024 alone, India’s fossil fuel imports from Russia reached fifty-three billion dollars, a major contribution to Moscow’s global oil export revenues. The motivation for Indian refiners is largely financial. Russian crude trades at an average of thirty-nine dollars per ton cheaper than Iraqi crude, producing an estimated ten to thirteen billion dollars in cumulative savings over 2023 and 2024. What began as a tactical maneuver under Western sanctions has now entrenched Russia as India’s most vital crude supplier.
At the same time, India has emerged as an unexpected diesel lifeline for Ukraine. In August 2025, it became Kyiv’s top diesel supplier for the second month in a row, with its market share rising to 18.1 percent from 15.5 percent in July. Deliveries surged by 42.8 percent to 3,800 tonnes per day, equivalent to about 114,000 tonnes across the month. Most shipments move through Romania’s Danube ports and Turkey, filling the gap left by traditional European suppliers like Slovakia and Greece. The irony is that much of this diesel is refined from Russian crude purchased at discount, allowing India to profit by selling fuel to a country locked in war with Moscow.
The imbalance is glaring. India’s crude trade with Russia runs into millions of barrels each day, worth tens of billions of dollars annually, while its diesel exports to Ukraine, though crucial, amount to only thousands of tonnes per day, worth just millions monthly. Russia secures steady cash flows to sustain its war chest, India gains refinery margins and energy security, and Ukraine gets modest yet vital fuel volumes. This is not a balance but a distortion.
New Delhi defends this approach as pragmatism, insisting it shields the economy from volatility and guarantees affordable energy. Yet the numbers tell a different story: a transactional opportunism that undermines India’s credibility. To Moscow, India is a lifeline customer sustaining Russia’s export machine. To Kyiv, it is a surprising partner offering essential fuel, albeit tainted by Russian crude. To Washington and Brussels, India remains an awkward ally whose deeds undercut the spirit of strategic partnership.
What emerges is not neutrality but duplicity. India seeks discounted oil from Russia, goodwill from Ukraine, and strategic favor from the West, all while quietly playing every side. Such maneuvering may deliver short-term economic rewards, but it risks long-term reputational damage. In the end, India’s much-touted “strategic autonomy” appears less like independence and more like strategic hypocrisy: profiting from both sides of a brutal war while pretending to remain above it.
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