Soldier Map Middle East Army War Military Weapon
1 East Asia Pacific Europe Middle East Opinion Social Issues 

Escalation Of War In Middle East: Geopolitical Transformation On Global Plane – OpEd

Dr. Sadri Ramabaja 0 Comments

By

The likelihood that we will have an escalation of war in the Middle East is increasing more and more. An Israeli response to Iran’s recent blitzkrieg has already been forewarned. Its proportions will be the possible prologue of a trend with a global character.

Experts well versed in security and geopolitics claim that Israel’s retaliation could be devastating for Iran. If they choose to target critical Iranian oil infrastructure – much of which is located near Kharg Island – Iran’s exports will plummet. If that happens, an Iranian attack on the Saudi oil fields would not be out of the question, and then we could be talking about 20 million barrels per day under threat.

Israel will continue to implement its strategy related to the weakening of Iran’s role and influence in the region and this can only be achieved by bombing Iran’s nuclear plants and oil sources and refineries. Attacking these targets is intrinsic to Israel’s existence, so it is at the heart of Israel’s strategy.
The action carried out on Saturday morning [on October 26, 2024] by the Israeli army, which targeted military targets, was in retaliation for the ballistic missile attack that the Islamic Republic carried out on Israel on October 1. Images released by the Israeli military showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant directing the operation against Iran from Kirya, the military headquarters of the Israel Defense Forces in Tel Aviv.[1]

A Defense Ministry spokesman said in a statement that Netanyahu and Gallant “are closely following” the attacks on Iran “from the IDF’s command and control center.”

In this respect, regardless of the differences between the US and Israel, Washington will stand by Jerusalem, because at a strategic and geopolitical level, Washington (and its Western allies) can no longer accept or tolerate non-state actors (Houthis, Hasd Al-Sha’bi, Hezbollah), threatening either the blockade of sea routes or regional instability.[2]
To stress that the retaliation was more effective, the Israeli Air Force later claimed that these attacks had destroyed “the backbone of Iran’s missile industry”, a critical component of its ballistic missile program. The targets struck were sophisticated equipment that Iran could not produce on its own and had to be purchased from China. Subsequent reports claim Israel destroyed air defense systems near oil refineries in retaliatory strike on Iran.  If that’s the case, Netanyahu government was trying to minimize the damage it caused in Iran, to appease the White House and defuse a potential Iranian response. By the same token, Netanyahu struggled to deflect international attention away from atrocities in northern Gaza and southern Lebanon. 

The Netanyahu cabinet was playing with fire.[3]

This collision would hit China’s interests in energy and regional stability, while Germany could be the second hit in terms of collateral damage.

Bringing China to its knees US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Israel on October 22 on his 11th visit to the region since the war between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian group declared a terrorist organization by the United States and the Union, began. European.

Both China and Germany will be under great pressure to react in order to protect their strategic interests. In this case, China will make its last efforts to increase its influence in the region, while Germany will try to maintain the stability of European security.

I. Geopolitical transformation

The accelerated development of events in the Middle East seems to have gone beyond any possible preconceived scenario. Consequently, the missing strategies for the prevention of major tragedies can impose geopolitical transformation on a global scale.

The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar follows the elimination of other Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. The plan to eliminate the leaders of the so-called “axis of resistance” is apparently part of Israel’s strategy to cut off Iran’s arms in the region, as a prerequisite to isolating the latter, and possibly neutralizing its nuclear program. his nuclear.[4]

The escalation of war in the Middle East has created a complex dynamic that profoundly affects global geopolitics. This region is a focal point for many countries and global powers for several reasons. 

The Middle East is of great importance because of its large reserves of oil and gas. Control over these resources makes the region a battleground between regional and global powers. Global powers such as the US, Russia, China and the European Union all have strong strategic interests in the region.

But in addition to confronting the interests of the great powers, the war in the Middle East is shaking regional powers as well. Civil wars, interstate conflicts and religious disputes in the region have engulfed countries such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Palestine in a spiral of violence and insecurity. Foreign powers often intervene in these conflicts, either to protect their interests, to support one side against another, or to guarantee control of strategically important areas. For example, Russia’s intervention in Syria and Iran’s influence in Iraq and Yemen are just a few examples of external involvement.

But the Middle East also faces a major rivalry between regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. These two countries represent two opposite religious and political poles (Sunnis and Shiites), and the clash between them affects many in this framework of growing conflicts in the region. This clash escalates existing conflicts and complicates efforts at a diplomatic solution.

The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has had significant effects on the international scene. This worsens relations between superpowers on a global scale and regional powers.

Meanwhile, the conflict does not seem to have an end. On the contrary: In addition to the escalation that has already occurred in the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah, the acute horror scenario of a regional war between Israel and Iran and the so-called “axis of resistance” led by it. still exists. In addition to Hamas and Hezbollah, this includes the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Syria and Iraq.[5]

Turkey’s reaction to the escalation of the war in the Middle East is expected to be influenced by several important strategic and political factors. Historically, Turkey has a unique position in the region, being a member of NATO and a regional power that seeks to maintain a balance between Western interests and ties to the Muslim world, including Palestine and the Arab population.

If the conflict has escalated between Israel and Palestinian groups, including Lebanon recently, as it has in the past, Turkey has shown strong solidarity with the Palestinian people, condemning Israel for military action and calling for an end to violence. President Erdogan has often been an outspoken critic of Israeli policies in Gaza and the West Bank.

On the other hand, Turkey may be careful to maintain regional stability and not jeopardize diplomatic relations with the West or the Arab states of the Gulf, with which it has recently improved ties. However, Turkey’s foreign policy is often dynamic and determined by developments on the ground, so the concrete response will depend on the circumstances of the escalation and the attitudes of other international players.

In the case of a wider regional war involving more countries (such as Iran, Syria, or other powerful actors), Turkey may try to mediate, using its position as a potential mediator while trying to secure its borders and strategic interests.

II. Kurdistan – Potential balance to Iranian and Turkish influence

The idea of ​​creating an independent Kurdish state, after the US intervention in Kuwait and the overthrow of Hussein’s regime, is related to the idea of ​​reforming Iraq, its federalization. But just like the idea of ​​reformatting the Middle East and the idea of ​​creating a Kurdish state, it is easier said than done.

The rise of an independent Kurdish state in the context of the escalation of the war in the Middle East and geopolitical alignments is a complex issue, but also possible. Some factors that can affect this situation include:

History of the Kurds: The Kurdish people have sought independence for many decades, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran. However, the formation of an independent state has been hindered by the harsh attitude of neighboring countries and by international powers that have different interests in the region.

Geopolitical alliances: If a wider conflict escalates, the situation would create opportunities for new alliances. The Kurds, especially those in Iraq and Syria, have played an important role in the fight against ISIS and have been supported by the US and some Western countries. A new geopolitical alignment could see Kurdistan viewed as a potential ally of Israel, especially if it is understood to provide a balance to Iranian and Turkish influence.

Turkey’s position: Turkey has a large Kurdish population and has historically been opposed to the idea of ​​an independent Kurdish state. A new geopolitical alignment involving the rise of Kurdistan would pose a significant threat to Turkey’s interests. This could lead to a clash between Turkey and the Kurds, and could influence the attitudes of other countries.

Meanwhile, Turkey has officially requested to join BRICS, meanwhile, on the other hand, it has restored contacts with the Syrian regime and the Kurds in Syria. Ankara is in favor of a multipolar world and is extremely worried about the possibility of creating a Kurdish state already on the territory of Syria and with the help of Israel, which could be the pantheon of the Kurdish nation divided between the neighboring countries. including Turkey, where most of the Kurds live. This fact could change the whole dynamic not only in Syria and Iraq, but also in Turkey.

International interests: Other powers, such as Russia and Iran, also have strong interests in the region and may support policies that prevent the establishment of an independent Kurdish state in order to maintain their influence.

Popularity of Kurdish ideas: If the situation in the Middle East escalates, support for the idea of ​​a Kurdish state may increase, especially if the Kurds are seen as a stabilizing force in a troubled environment.

Ultimately, although there is scope for increased support for the creation of a Kurdish state in the context of a possible escalation of war in the Middle East, many political, military and economic factors will influence this development. The situation will remain unclear and dynamic, requiring constant attention to future developments.

2.1 Iran and the future Kurdish state

Geopolitical transformation in the Middle East, particularly in relation to Iran’s strategic interests and Kurdish aspirations for statehood, is a complex subject related to a variety of historical, ethnic, economic and military factors.

A part of the Kurdish population lives inside the territory of Iran, mainly in the western region of the country (Iranian Kurdistan). This makes the issue of a future Kurdish state a major challenge for Iran, as any move towards Kurdish autonomy or statehood is seen as a threat to Iran’s own territorial integrity.

Iran sees the creation of an independent Kurdish state (in Iraq or Syria) as a dangerous precedent to encourage separatist movements not only among the Kurds in Iran, but also among other ethnic groups.

Strategic and economic ties: Iran has a strong interest in maintaining its influence in Iraq and Syria, where the Kurds are a significant political and military force. An independent Kurdish state could undermine Iran’s influence in these countries, especially if the new Kurdish state is supported by Israel and the US.

The regions where the Kurds live, such as in Iraq and Syria, are rich in natural resources, including oil. Iran has economic interests in these regions and may seek to maintain some control over these resources through alliances or controlled tensions with the Kurds.

III. Regional dynamics

Turkey and Iran: Both of these countries have opposed the creation of a Kurdish state, but for different reasons. While Turkey is focused on stopping any Kurdish movement that could empower the PKK, Iran is worried about the possibility of destabilizing its Kurdish part.

The expected geopolitical transformation regarding the balancing of Turkey’s strategic interests in the face of the formation of a future Kurdish state is a complex and delicate issue, involving many factors, including regional, ethnic and strategic relations.

The history of relations between Turkey and the Kurds has been tense, especially due to the armed conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). A future Kurdish state, whether in Iraq, Syria, or even other Kurdish-populated territories, has traditionally been seen as a threat to Turkey’s territorial integrity, given that a large part of the Kurdish population lives in the southeastern part of Turkey. country.

Although Iran opposes the formation of a Kurdish state, it has also maintained pragmatic relations with some Kurdish groups in Iraq, notably the PUK (Patriotic Party of Kurdistan). This approach has enabled Iran to exert influence in Iraqi Kurdistan and use the Kurds as a means of balancing forces against Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

3.1 Turkey’s Regional Strategy

Turkey has pursued a policy of regional intervention to control any developments that could lead to the formation of an independent Kurdish state near its borders. In Syria, for example, Turkey has intervened militarily to prevent Kurdish forces from coalescing and creating an independent entity in the north of the country. Part of this policy also concerns the creation of buffer zones, where Turkey has aimed to control territories to limit the activity of Kurdish forces and prevent the formation of an autonomous state.

3.2 Balancing Interests with the USA and Russia

The formation of a Kurdish state depends not only on the region, but also on the policies of major powers such as the US and Russia. The US has supported the Syrian Kurds in the fight against ISIS, while Russia has used the Kurdish card to strengthen its influence in the Middle East. Turkey, on the other hand, has tried to balance its interests with both powers, making a clear position difficult. Any change in the policy of these powers towards the Kurds could affect the attitude of Ankara and the shape of the geopolitical transformation in the region.

3.3 Economic and Energy Card

Turkey can use economic means to influence the Kurds. In Iraq, for example, the autonomous Kurdish region has been dependent on Turkey for oil exports through Turkish pipelines. Ankara may try to use this economic influence to avoid an independent Kurdish state by strengthening the Kurds’ dependence on Turkey, especially in the energy and trade aspects.

3.4 Regional Sustainability Coalition

Turkey, to ensure stability and minimize the impact of an independent Kurdish state, may seek to form a regional coalition with states such as Iran, Syria, and possibly Iraq, which also have large Kurdish minorities and are concerned about the consequences. of an autonomy or independence of the Kurds.

In summary, the expected geopolitical transformation will depend on Turkey’s ability to balance the perceived threat of a future Kurdish state with its strategic interests, including relations with major powers and regional partners, as well as the use of economic means to influenced in these developments.

3.5 Alliances with the US and Russia

The role of major powers such as the US and Russia can be decisive for the future of a Kurdish state. Iran is in an uneasy alliance with Russia in Syria and in direct confrontation with the US, which has supported the Kurds in the fight against ISIS. This international context strongly influences Iran’s geopolitical calculations.

IV. Geopolitical transformation on the global plane – The blow of China and Germany

4.1 Involvement of China

China has important economic and strategic interests in Iran, especially in the energy sector. A major conflict in the region could harm Chinese investments and its infrastructure projects as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Moreover, China would be directly affected by rising energy prices and could try to play a mediating role to maintain stability in the region and protect its interests.

An Israeli attack on Iran would have far-reaching geopolitical consequences, which could strongly affect not only the Middle East region, but also global powers such as China and Germany. The deepening relations between China and the Middle East reflect broader developments at the geoeconomic and geopolitical levels and have implications that go far beyond the region.

The profound changes in the energy markets during the last decade have shaken the balance created in the last three decades of the 20th century. This new situation, in 2019, for example, President Donald Trump refused to intervene in the Iranian attack on Saudi oil processing facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, which was seen as a betrayal in Gulf political circles.[6]

At the same time, over the past decade, China has become the largest oil importer in the world and the largest buyer in the Middle East. China’s share of the region’s energy exports grew from less than 5 percent in the early 2000s to over 20 percent in 2021.[7]

Economic Relations with Iran: China is one of Iran’s most important economic partners, especially in the energy sector. An Israeli attack on Iran could threaten China’s interests, especially in relation to oil and gas supplies. That would disrupt the trade and energy relations China has built with Iran.

Regional Stability: China is interested in maintaining stability in the region, as destabilization in the Middle East would affect transportation routes and its “One Belt, One Road” project. An escalating conflict could jeopardize China’s influence in global markets and its infrastructure initiatives.

Confrontation with the US: An attack by Israel could involve the US, and China, being in fierce geopolitical competition with the US, may feel compelled to intervene politically or economically to protect its interests. her in the region and balance power on the international stage.

4.2 Involvement of Germany

A possible Israeli attack on Iran would have major geopolitical consequences and would strongly influence not only the Middle East, but also the international arena. This scenario would directly affect many countries and various global interests, including Germany. Some of the main consequences may include:

Escalating tensions in the Middle East: An Israeli attack would escalate tensions in the region, leading to new conflicts between local powers, including Arab states and Iran’s allies such as Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian groups.

Impact on global energy markets: Iran is one of the main exporters of oil and gas. A conflict in the region could damage global energy supplies and raise prices, which would have economic consequences for European countries, including Germany, which depend on energy imports.

Impact on German domestic politics: Germany is one of the main EU countries that has supported the nuclear agreement with Iran (JCPOA). An attack could worsen relations between the EU and the US if the US supports military action by Israel. This would put Germany in a difficult position, between its support for diplomacy and its close relations with Israel and the US.

Refugee crisis: A widening conflict in the Middle East could trigger a new refugee crisis that would directly affect Europe and especially Germany, which has already faced major challenges with refugee flows from other regions in recent years .

Risks to European Security: The conflict could increase refugee flows and tensions in the Middle East, which would affect the stability of Europe. Germany, as one of the key countries of the EU, may face major challenges related to domestic security and politics, due to the humanitarian and security consequences that may arise from the conflict.

V. Position of Albania and Albanians

Albania as a member of NATO: Being part of the North Atlantic Alliance, Albania is in a position to support NATO’s general policies in the region. The Republic of Kosovo should also do this alongside Albania. The escalation of the war in the Middle East could increase Albania’s military commitments through international security missions or its diplomatic role in supporting NATO partners.

Economic effects and immigration: Albania, as part of the Balkan region, may be affected by immigration flows driven by the destabilization of the Middle East. Another wave of refugees could put pressure on the country’s infrastructure and create new socio-economic challenges.

Albanian diaspora in the Middle East: Albanians living in Middle Eastern countries may face direct consequences from the escalation of the war. This includes possible emigration or other challenges in trying to survive in a conflict-torn region.

In this case, the state organization for their return to the homeland of their ancestors is a historical task and a human and moral obligation.

Conclusion

An Israeli attack on Iran would hit China’s interests in energy and regional stability, while Germany would face diplomatic and humanitarian challenges. Both countries will feel pressure to react in order to protect their strategic interests, with China likely to look to increase its influence in the region, and Germany trying to maintain European security stability.

This is not to say that Israel may not have a “Pyrrhic Victory” at a very high cost! Even the United States may lose ground to Russia, China and the Global South. This ongoing war has now become regional, and linked to great power rivalry.

The geopolitical transformation expected in the region, if a Kurdish state takes shape, will require Iran to carefully calibrate its approach. Balancing its strategic interests will involve a mix of diplomacy, economic pressure and military influence, as well as a careful pursuit of great power policies.

Wars and conflicts in the Middle East can catalyze broader geopolitical transformations. In addition to natural resources, the region has strategic importance for trade corridors and for major sea and land routes. If the conflict deepens, there may be changes in international alliances and repositioning of global powers in unpredictable ways.
________________________

Dr. Sadri Ramabaja

Dr. Sadri Ramabaja was born on October 4th, 1961 in the Village of Gollak, in the town of Dardania, Republic of Kosovo. Dr. Ramabaja has been an active member of the National Albanian Union Party for over fifteen years (1990-2005) until this political party ceased to exist and later on actively participated in the Social Democratic Party of Kosovo. Since 2010 has emerged as one of the leaders of the Self Determination Movement while promoting the main principles of this alliance and is a member of the National Assembly of Prishtina for two terms. In 1983 he was arrested by the Serbian Secret Service for his active role in Kosovo’s quest for independence. Thereafter Dr. Ramabaja was jailed as a political disident for three years in the penitentiary of Vraja. During his residence in Switzerland (1987-2002) he continued his University studies in Tirana, and his postgraduate studies in the University of Basel, in the European Studies Institute. For three years in a row (1987-1990) Dr. Ramabaja was the editor of VOICE OF KOSOVO, a newspaper published in Switezerland. During the years 2001-2004 he was the professional collaborator for Communications Media at the OST Institute-West in Bern, Switzerland. In 2002 returned to Kosovo and continued with his post-graduate studies at the College of Law and International Relations, where he graduated with a Masters Degree in International Law Sciences. In 2004-2006 Dr. Ramabaja served as a Senior Political Adviser in the Office of the Prime Minister of Kosovo. In November 2008 was a PHD Student of Political Sciences and International Relations, in the European Center for Peace and Development (ECPD) at the Peace University of the United Nations. In 2012 was transferred at the Graduate School of the European University of Tirana, to continue with his postgraduate degree defended through the presentation of his dissertation: “Albanian Federation-Cohesion of a Nation-State and the European Union” Dr. Ramabaja, has been published abroad in many renowned newspapers and magazines; has published eleven scientific and research papers in the field of international affairs and geopolitical studies. He is a Fellow of the International Political Studies Institute of Skopie, Macedonia. Dr. Ramabaja is the author of four Books in Albanian Language: “Realizmi politik dhe çështja kombëtare” (Tiranë, 1998); “UE-ja shpresë apo ringjallje utopish” (Prishtinë, 2003); “Gazetaria” (one of four co-authors of this university text book- Tiranë,2002); “Feniksit ia gjeta çerdhen”(Poetry - Tiranë, 1993); “Federata Shqiptare – Kohezioni i shteti-komb në BE”(Ph.D. Dissertation).

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *