By Vladimir Gladkov
Clouds are gathering over Iran, which is persistently refusing to abandon its nuclear development programme and which is now finding itself in almost complete isolation. According to the US Navy Times, the Enterprise aircraft carrier has already carried out military exercises off the coast of Florida which was in effect a simulatin of a possible military action in the Strait of Hormuz.
This spring the Enterprise aircraft carrier is to join the US Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf. When pulling the military forces to the coast of Iran Barack Obama is not forgetting about the economic sanctions. His recent ruling has frozen Iran’s state assets on the US territory. It is obvious that it is very disadvantageous for Obama to launch a new military campaign on the eve of election and he hopes that the economic pressure on Iran will help him to postpone the beginning of the new war. But the conflict’s development may leave no chances to its participants to come out dry.
Although the US Navy command denies that the exercises were conducted exclusively as the simulation of the Iranian operation, the scenario of the maneuvers speaks for itself. According to the Navy Times, the exercises in the area of the imaginary Treasure coast comprised actions in a 200 miles strait which was 35 miles wide. That is exactly the width of the Strait of Hormuz, the key component of one of the most important oil routes Teheran threatens to block if the global community does not stop hampering its unclear developments.
According to the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), before 2003 Iran worked on the creation of its won nuclear weapon and may still be working on it under the guise of a peaceful nuclear program. Asserting its right for the experiments on uranium enrichment Teheran have almost turned into an isolated state. It has made angry not only its deadly enemies – the US and Israel – but also its neighbors in the Persian Gulf, which does not want the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
While neither mysterious murders of Iranian nuclear scientists of which Teheran accused Israel’s Mossad service nor tougher sanctions on behalf of the US and the EU can stop the development of Iran’s nuclear program, Iran still has not carried out its threat to take measures in response. If earlier Teheran claimed that it would not let the US forces enter the Persian Gulf, now when it has become clear that the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier would pass the Strait of Hormuz in any case an official with the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said that Iran’s leadership did not see anything objectionable in the presence of the US forces in the Persian Gulf.
This unexpected ability of the Iranian government to make concessions gives us the only hope that the conflict may be settled peacefully. Neither the US nor Israel will let Iran continue development of nuclear weapon which is quite understandable. If such an unstable and unpredictable government has its own nuclear weapon it will put the world on the edge of a nuclear disaster. The anti-Israeli and anti-Jewish statements made by the Iranian president Ahmadinedjad raise serious concerns over his ability to take adequate political decisions.
At the same time contradictions between Ahmadinejad and the spiritual leader of the country Ayatollah Khamenei may lead to the change of power in the country at any moment. If Teheran has at least a slightest ability to analyze the situation it should understand that it has no chances to win against the US and Israel and the defeat in the war will have the worst consequences for the government. At the same time it is obvious that neither Israel nor the US is willing to get involved in a new war. The new war conflict may bury the hope for Obama’s reelection. But the economic pressure and the manifestation of military power fail to influence Iran the global community will get involved in a new military conflict, which negative consequences are hard to measure in full.