By Paul Goble
Two Moscow commentators who often reflect Kremlin views say that the situation in Armenia is deteriorating to the point that that country in the Southern Caucasus is following the Ukrainian example and thus promises to generate the kind of instability the West will exploit against Russia.
Roman Lugovoy of Versiya says that Armenian Prime Minsiter Nikol Pashinyan came to power via a color revolution and now may lose it in another; but even if Yereven “doesn’t repeat the fate of Kyiv,” Armenia is likely to remain unstable and that instability threatens Russian interests in the region (versia.ru/v-armenii-zreet-novaya-revolyuciya).
And Igor Moiseyev of Svobodnaya Pressa suggests that what is going on shows that “Yerevan has already chosen ‘the Ukrainian path,” a trend that could end with the disappearance of that country. He says that Azerbaijan and Turkey, acting for the West with its interests in weakening Russia, are likely to be the chief culprits in such an outcome.
But the fact that Moscow analysts are drawing analogies between Armenia and Ukraine is worrisome given what Putin has said about the disappearance of Ukraine from the map of the world and what his forces are doing there. Such remarks suggest that some in the Kremlin may now be considering Armenia as the next target for Russian aggression.
Moscow has the forces in place to mount such an attack and may be thinking that it not only could easily overpower the Armenian authorities thus giving it a victory but would enjoy in Yerevan at least some support, especially if the Russian side portrayed what it was doing as a defense of Armenia against Turkic plans.