India–U.S. Ties Strain Under Modi, Boosting Pakistan’s Diplomatic Stance – OpEd
India–U.S. relations, once hailed as steadily improving, now face growing strain, as shared values and security ties are overshadowed by disputes over tariffs, visas and strategic priorities.
Once hailed as close allies, Modi, who arrogantly considered himself Trump’s friend now faces the fallout of his overconfidence and miscalculations. His self-serving policies have turned what was a strong partnership into an increasingly hostile and strained relationship over trade, strategy and governance. Trump imposed steep tariffs on Indian goods over Russian oil imports, viewing India’s stance as defying Western sanctions, escalated measures from 25% to 50%, finally announcing a 100% cut.
The pressure targeted India’s economic vulnerabilities, particularly its reliance on foreign remittances. India receives roughly $135–140 billion annually in remittances, of which $35–40 billion comes from U.S. A large share comes from highly paid Indian professionals. India risks losing $25–30 billion if its workers are denied U.S. visas or forced to return home. Trump justified these measures by pledging to prioritize American jobs over foreign workers, especially Indians.
Historically, India–U.S. relations have gone through several phases. Between 1947 and 1991, India’s Non-Aligned Movement conflicted with Washington’s Cold War tilt toward Pakistan, creating long-standing mistrust. After the Cold War, India’s 1991 economic liberalization attracted U.S. investment and President Bill Clinton’s 2000 visit marked a turning point. Between 2000 and 2008, the U.S.–India “civil nuclear deal” under George W. Bush and Manmohan Singh elevated ties into a strategic partnership, particularly in defence and technology. From 2008 to 2016, cooperation deepened through major defence sales, joint military exercises and counterterrorism collaboration. Under Trump and Modi between 2017 and 2020, the two countries converged strategically in Indo-Pacific to counter China’s influence, though trade disputes began to emerge. Since 2021, cooperation has continued but remains overshadowed by disagreements over Russia, human rights and trade barriers.
Modi’s foreign policy, shaped by Hindu nationalist RSS ideology, emphasizes strategic autonomy. While courting the U.S., India continues strong ties with Russia, importing over $13 billion in weapons and sourcing nearly half its crude oil from Moscow. Simultaneously, India engages China through the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” despite unresolved border tensions. This balancing act frustrates Washington, which seeks firmer alignment against both Moscow and Beijing.
The Indo-Pakistan standoff of May 2025 further tested these dynamics. India deployed 250,000 troops along the Line of Control, violated the ceasefire more than 150 times in three months and suspended $2 billion in cross-border trade. Pakistan responded with relative restraint, called for peace and sought international mediation. After three days of clashes, both sides agreed to a ceasefire on May 10, 2025. Trump claimed credit, citing U.S. trade pressure and fears of nuclear escalation, but India denied American mediation, insisting the agreement was reached bilaterally. Pakistan, in contrast, bolstered its diplomatic standing by presenting itself as a responsible actor citing the downing of Indian Rafale jets and drawing attention to U.S. interest in its mineral and oil reserves. Islamabad even nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. For the first time, a U.S. president showed readiness to mediate on Kashmir, inviting Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, to Washington, further enhancing Pakistan’s international position and diplomatic approach.
Economically, Indian trade with U.S. reached $212 billion last year, yet frictions remain over energy, tariffs and labour migration. The H-1B visa program, with Indians making up 73% of recipients, is vital for India’s tech sector but faces growing U.S. scrutiny. Domestically, Modi also faces criticism for rising unemployment, inflation, religious polarization and controversial policies such as demonetization, farm reforms and a poorly managed COVID-19 response. On August 15, 2025, Modi emphasized India’s focus on self-reliance, energy independence and domestic defence production, though critics caution that this approach could further isolate the country on the global stage.
The Modi–Trump fallout now jeopardizes defence collaboration, trade talks and Indo-Pacific coordination, previously central to the bilateral partnership. India’s credibility as a rising strategic partner is under scrutiny, while Pakistan regains diplomatic leverage. The situation intensified when U.S. revoked its sanctions waiver for Iran’s Chabahar Port. This move exposes Indian companies operating there to potential penalties and complicates trade routes connecting India to Afghanistan and Central Asia, creating significant logistical and economic challenges.
Indo–US relations, once strong and strategically aligned, are now strained by trade disputes, visa restrictions and conflicting foreign policy priorities, while Modi’s overconfidence and domestic challenges have turned a promising partnership into a fragile and contentious relationship, simultaneously enhancing Pakistan’s diplomatic leverage.
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